Category Archives: Science

The Statistical Case Against Evolution


It is unfortunate that the best arguments against evolution require some hard work to make, or some knowledge of biochemistry.  One of my own favorite arguments requires both.  I think it’s a strong argument, and I’ve not seen much attempt to answer it in its complete form.  I call it my “favorite,” not because I find it more interesting than all the others, but because it is quantifiable, can stand on its own, and if it is valid, then it provides an insurmountable problem for Darwinian theory.

Below, I will attempt to make the argument as simply, but completely, as possible.  I’ll use 10 basic propositions, which I believe are, for the most part, quite uncontroversial.  Below each point I’ll include some detail or justification, and I’ll provide links for further understanding or examples.

Here we go.

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We’re Probably Alone in the Universe

milky-way-night-sky-are-we-alone-compressedI’ve seen a lot of chatter on a new paper submitted to the Proceedings of the Royal Society of London by some Oxford researchers. Apparently, they’ve concluded that there is “a substantial ex ante probability of there being no other intelligent life in our observable universe.”

Here is a sample article discussing the paper:

As it says, “The authors assert that the chance humanity stands alone among intelligent civilizations in our galaxy is 53%–99.6%, and across the observable universe is 39%–85%.”

This is based upon a reassessment of the “Drake Equation,” made famous by Carl Sagan, and the probable values for each of its variables. Here is a link to that equation:

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Climate Change Controversy: More Than One Question

questionmarkscloudsThose who decry climate change “deniers” tend to lump them all into one group who reject the entire suite of concerns.  In reality, it is far more complicated than that.  The climate change controversy is made up of many separate, cascading propositions.

While climate alarmism appears to be premised upon the acceptance of the entire program, the “deniers” are a more diverse group that may reject, or merely be skeptical of, one or more points in the narrative. I believe it does a disservice to legitimate debate, at best, and is disingenuous, at worst, to overlook the many levels of questions that make up this issue.

Here are what I see as the high level breakdown of separate concerns in this debate.
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Evolution: Teach the WHOLE theory

apple-halves“Evolution by natural selection is one of the best ideas in all of science. It predicts and explains an incredibly wide range of biological facts.” So says a Wall Street Journal article, which ponders how we can teach children this “fact” and drive out of their little heads the mistaken intuition that biology is the product of design. It claims that so many people reject evolutionary theory simply because they don’t understand it, and suggests that we should remedy this by attempting to “reach children with the right theory before the wrong one is too firmly in place.”

Contrary to popular belief, many in the Intelligent Design community agree that we should teach evolutionary theory. If it is a theory in play within the scientific community, then it deserves to have a hearing. Even if it stopped being “consensus” science, then we should still teach it as a historical artifact, as astronomers do with the Steady State and Oscillating Universe theories. But if we’re going to teach it, then we should teach the whole thing, warts and all.

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